The Status of Mangold, Waititi, Glover & Soderbergh: What’s Likely to Survive

We want answers: which director-led Star Wars films are actually still happening?

If you follow Star Wars projects closely, you know the pain: one announcement becomes three years of silence, then a new studio reshuffle, then conflicting reports. Fans, creators and industry watchers all want a single, reliable map of which announced director-driven Star Wars films have real momentum—and which are effectively vaporware.

This investigative update (January 2026) takes the latest studio signals—Kathleen Kennedy’s exit interview, Dave Filoni’s promotion, recent trades and script reports—and converts them into practical odds, timelines and scenarios for four high-profile director projects: James Mangold, Taika Waititi, Donald Glover, and Steven Soderbergh.

Quick takeaway

Short version: scripts exist for several projects, but Lucasfilm’s priorities have shifted. TV and Filoni-aligned continuity are king in 2026, and budget risk + actor availability + creative coherence will determine which films survive. Below I assign practical production odds and explain why.

The context: why 2025–26 is a pivot moment for Star Wars movies

Two late-2025 / early-2026 developments set the backdrop for all four projects.

• Leadership change: Kathleen Kennedy’s exit and Dave Filoni’s elevation to co-president of Lucasfilm. Filoni emphasizes continuity across TV and film and favors projects that knit into the broader narrative Filoni’s teams control.
• Studio recalibration: After mixed box-office returns for event films and a profitable boom in serialized streaming IP (The Mandalorian, Andor), Disney has signaled it will favor smaller, connective stories that feed streaming and theme-park experiences over expensive, high-concept tentpoles that risk long gaps between releases.

Those two facts matter because each director’s project sits at a different point on the risk spectrum: high-concept historical epics (Mangold) vs. tonal, director-driven features (Waititi) vs. character-centered origin stories (Glover, Soderbergh).

How I assessed likelihoods

For each title I weigh four practical buckets:

1. Script & creative readiness: Is there a finished script or multiple drafts? Has Lucasfilm publicly described the script as “incredible” or “finished”?
2. Studio fit & priorities: Does the project align with Filoni-era strategy (serialized coherence, lower risk, tie-ins)?
3. Logistics & budget: Scale of VFX, shooting complexity, location and cost pressures.
4. Talent & schedule: Director and lead actor availability and pattern of commitments.

From those, I assign a practical production odds percentage and then give a likely timeline and what could push the project forward or kill it.

Project by project: odds, reasoning and scenarios

James Mangold — Dawn of the Jedi (Odds: 25%)

What we know: Lucasfilm publicly called Mangold’s script “incredible” but said the film is “on hold.” The project was pitched as a 25,000-year-before-ANH historical epic about the origins of the Force and the first Jedi.

“Jim Mangold and Beau Willimon wrote an incredible script, but it is definitely breaking the mold and it’s on hold.” — Kathleen Kennedy, Deadline (Jan 2026)

Why the odds are low

• Scale: A Dawn-of-the-Jedi epic requires massive worldbuilding and extensive VFX. In 2026 Disney is risk-averse on big one-off tentpoles that don’t feed streaming ecosystems.
• Studio priorities: Filoni’s emphasis is on interconnected storytelling that supports streaming series and franchise continuity. A prehistoric origin tale sits outside that priority unless explicitly tied into Filoni-era canon via characters or artifacts.
• Cost vs. reward: The presumed production budget and long post-production timeline make greenlighting this a heavy financial bet that Disney may avoid while recalibrating release windows and costs.

What would revive it

• Strong internal advocacy from a new studio champion (Filoni or a high-up who sees cross-platform tie-ins).
• Budget rework into a limited-series model (e.g., a 6–8 episode prestige show that spreads cost and drives streaming subs).
• External incentives: tax breaks, co-production partnerships, or deferred VFX pipelines reducing near-term spend.

Likely timeline if greenlit: 2027–2029 release at the earliest. More likely the project remains a script asset or pivots into TV by 2028–2030.

Taika Waititi — Untitled Star Wars Film (Odds: 45%)

What we know: Reports indicate Lucasfilm has a script and that Waititi remains attached in concept. Waititi’s stylistic brand—irreverent, character-driven, comedic—could inject freshness into the franchise while keeping budgets more manageable than a full-on cosmic origin epic.

Why the odds are middling but real

• Directorial profile: Waititi is a hot, bankable auteur who delivers distinctive tonal shifts that get publicity and can be packaged as an event without being a costly world-builder.
• Studio fit: A Waititi-led film could be positioned as a character or side-story that ties into Filoni-era characters, or as an entertaining standalone that revitalizes the brand—both attractive in 2026.
• Logistics: Waititi’s films are often more actor-driven and less VFX-heavy than Mangold’s Dawn concept, which reduces budgetary friction.
• Scheduling: Waititi juggles multiple projects; availability is a gating factor but surmountable.

What would push it forward

• Early commitment to a director-and-producer slate model that allows Waititi to shoot in between other projects.
• Positioning the film as complementary to a TV arc—e.g., introducing a character who later appears in a Filoni-era series.

Likely timeline if greenlit: 2026–2028 production, 2028–2029 release. If the film pivots to a streaming special or limited series, expect a 2027 release window.

Donald Glover — Lando Calrissian (Odds: 50%)

What we know: Sources say there is a finished script for a Lando movie and that Donald Glover has been attached. Lucasfilm has continued to reference the project in development, but no production start has been announced.

Why the odds are highest for Glover

• Compact scale: A Lando story is naturally character-driven; it can be shot with modest worldbuilding relative to Dawn-of-the-Jedi.
• Talent commitment: Glover has an existing relationship with Disney and demonstrated volatility in taking on high-profile projects, but his star power and commercial draw make the project attractive.
• Studio fit: Lando can be a cross-platform play—film release + streaming tie-in + theme park integration—matching Disney’s monetization goals.

Key risks

• Creative differences: Glover is both star and creative force; if his vision deviates from Filoni-era continuity, Lucasfilm could stall.
• Scheduling: Glover’s multiple commitments (music, TV, production) mean timing is delicate.

Likely timeline if greenlit: 2026–2027 prep and potential 2027–2028 release. If delayed, the property remains a strong candidate to convert into a limited series.

Steven Soderbergh — Ben Solo (Odds: 15%)

What we know: Soderbergh and Adam Driver reportedly had a completed script by Scott Burns for a Ben Solo tale, but Kennedy said the project is “on the back burner” and suggested it’s no more likely to happen than Mangold’s film.

Why the odds are slim

• Continuation complexity: A Ben Solo movie would need to resolve or recontextualize elements from the sequel trilogy—an area Lucasfilm now treats cautiously to avoid fragmenting canon and alienating audiences.
• Talent and timing: Adam Driver’s schedule and profile make him a big commitment, and Soderbergh’s style (cinematic, often experimental) might not align with Filoni’s cohesive TV-driven strategy.
• Opportunity cost: The upside for Disney is unclear; a Ben Solo film risks being labeled a sequel-phase reconciliation piece rather than a fresh driver of subscriptions or park visitors.

What could change this

• An internal pivot to rehabilitate sequel-era characters as a focused prestige film.
• Driver and Soderbergh pushing publicly and privately; studio appetite to back the pedigree pairing.

Likely timeline if greenlit: Unlikely before 2029. More realistic: stays a script or becomes a small-scale streaming event if the talent insists.

Signals to watch (how to tell if a project is actually moving)

Announcements are cheap; the real indicators are concrete production signals. Track these to separate announcements from action:

• Union filings: First AD and crew postings (IATSE/UK-based sagas) are clear production commitments.
• Production insurance & tax rebate filings: States and countries posting rebate commitments usually correlate with filming intent.
• Location scouting and construction permits: Local press that a studio is building sets is a very strong sign.
• Casting announcements tied to principal photography windows: Once leads sign, schedules lock and production is likely.
• Lucasfilm job postings for showrunners or series producers: Might indicate a film pivoting to TV.

Studio strategy and the broader industry trend in 2026

Across 2024–2026 the industry moved sharply from blockbuster-first logic to ecosystem-value logic. Disney now monetizes IP across streaming subscriptions, theme parks, merchandise and spin-offs. In that context:

• Serialized first: Serialized TV in the Star Wars universe offers sustained subscriber value and easier pacing for character work. Filoni’s deep TV background makes that format the default.
• Smaller budgets, bigger integration: Projects that can be made for less money and drive IP continuity—cameos, crossovers, narrative bridges—get priority.
• Event films must deliver certainty: High-budget films must promise clear IP returns: new characters who can live on in series, or park-friendly spectacle.

Practical takeaways for fans and creators

Here’s what to do next if you’re tracking these projects or creating Star Wars adjacent content.

For fans

• Follow production signals, not press releases. Set alerts for union listings, local production permits and casting notices — use fast research tools and browser extensions to track them.
• Expect more TV than film in the next 3–5 years. If you want new Star Wars stories fast, the best place to look is streaming and limited series rather than tentpoles.
• Manage expectations on director branding. Attaching a big name does not guarantee production; scripts, budget and studio fit matter more now.

For creators (writers, directors, producers)

• Pitch for serial adaptation. If you have a big-scale concept, propose a 6–8 episode arc—studios prefer serialized cost spreading and subscriber retention.
• Build credible cost models. Show how a story can be delivered with modern VFX workflows and realistic budgets. Studios in 2026 favor predictability.
• Tie projects into Filoni-era continuity. Demonstrate canonical bridges—how your story introduces elements that TV can use.
• Leverage fan analytics and community engagement. Lucasfilm cares about passion communities; show a plan to sustain engagement across platforms (podcasts, live events, shorts).

Three plausible futures for these projects (2026–2030)

Based on current signals, here are three scenario paths that could unfold for the Mangold/Waititi/Glover/Soderbergh slate.

1) The Filoni Consolidation (Most Likely)

Filoni prioritizes interconnected television, with select films that feed series. Lando and a Waititi project are redesigned as either films that connect directly to series or as limited series themselves. Mangold and Soderbergh remain scripts on the shelf. Production focus 2026–2028: series and smaller films.

2) The Tentpole Risk Play (Optimistic for Films)

Disney bets on two tentpoles—Mangold’s Dawn and Waititi’s film—financing them with co-production deals and advanced VFX pipelines. Glover’s Lando fits into a post-release streaming series. This requires stronger confidence in global box office and reduced internal cost-cutting.

3) The Slow-Burn Monetization (Conservative)

Most director films pivot to streaming limited-series or remain dormant; Lucasfilm focuses on IP that can repeatedly monetize across parks, merchandising and microcontent. Fans get steady, smaller releases; auteur ambitions wait until market conditions are kinder.

Final verdict: who should you bet on?

If you’re placing practical bets today, here’s a short list:

• Most likely to materialize in near term (2026–2029): Donald Glover’s Lando (50%); Taika Waititi (45% if adapted into a connective story).
• Possible but delayed / pivoted: James Mangold (25%)—likely pivot to limited series or remain a script asset.
• Least likely as a standalone film: Steven Soderbergh’s Ben Solo (15%)—may resurface as a niche streaming event only if Driver and Soderbergh push.

What this means for the franchise—and fans—through 2026

Expect Lucasfilm to prioritize steady, connective storytelling that grows streaming subscribers and theme-park IP—projects that deliver on serialized engagement will get green lights before auteur-driven, high-risk tentpoles. That does not mean the director-ambitious films are dead; it means they must adapt to the new economics—either become serialized, reduce scope, or prove they can be monetized across Disney’s ecosystem.

Actionable checklist: How to stay on top of real progress

1. Set Google Alerts for “Lucasfilm,” “IATSE,” “SAG-AFTRA,” plus director names and “principal photography.”
2. Subscribe to Lucasfilm job boards and studio tax incentive announcements in likely filming locales (UK, Ireland, California, Australia).
3. Follow Dave Filoni, Lynwen Brennan and major producers on social for informal signals.
4. Track trade outlets (Deadline, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter) and local production beat reporters for concrete filings — use quick research tools like browser extensions and production trackers.

Closing prediction and cultural reading

By the end of 2026 we’ll know which projects survived this pivot. The more a project can be reframed as serialized, connective, or cost-predictable, the stronger its chance. For fans, the era ahead will reward patience and a focus on the serialized slate. For creators, the opportunity is to demonstrate how big ideas can be told in modular, monetizable ways.

One sentence forecast: expect Donald Glover’s Lando and a Taika Waititi project in some form before Mangold or Soderbergh see greenlit blockbuster production—unless the studio reverses course and accepts the big-risk, big-payoff tentpole model again.

Get more: keep a live pulse on this slate

Want real-time updates, data-driven odds recalculations, and veteran-sourced production signals as these projects evolve in 2026? Subscribe to Atlantic.Live’s Star Wars project tracker, follow our production-signal alerts, and join live discussions with industry producers and creators every month.

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